Discover how biased expectations theory impacts interest rates by incorporating investor preferences and risks, beyond just future rate predictions.

America celebrated Independence Day with a bang in the stock market this week, as we witnessed record numbers yet again. This impressive performance coincided with a rally in the back end of the yield ...

In a blog post published on January 16, economists Benjamin Böninghausen and Andreea Liliana Vladu look to disaggregate the ...

The “experts” talk about how the U.S. Treasury Curve is currently “inverted.” What does that mean, and should it matter to lenders? The fact is, the yield curve (a graphical representation of yields, ...

There’s nothing I’d rather do to celebrate my 47th birthday than write about the yield curve. 🙂 While the Fed’s rate moves—cuts or hikes—often explain the curve’s shifts, the yield curve itself has ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

Much has been made about an impending recession. The reasons, however, are seldom discussed, are even less understood, and do little to inform what actions investors should take (if any). Economists ...

There’s strong and growing evidence that the “next” US recession has begun - or will begin soon. Historically, the longer and deeper has been the initial inversion, the longer and deeper has been the ...

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An inverted yield curve indicates short-term rates exceed long-term, suggesting economic caution. Historically, consistent negative spreads on this curve have preceded recessions. Investors might ...